Could North Korea trigger a nuclear war ?~ ATAGEND
For a section of the US right, nuclear war has always been thinkable. The tradition goes back to the eyewitness report on Hiroshima by envoy Paul Nitze in 1945. Nitze was struck by the fact that people somewhat close to the impact survived, that the trains were operating within 48 hours, and that the number of dead and injured was similar to those in Allied raids on Berlin and Dresden.
Though Nitze would become, at the end of their own lives, a supporter of unilateral disarmament, he spent much of his career trying to inject the ideas of thinkability and winability into US nuclear strategy. Merely if you can conceive of fighting, surviving and winning a nuclear war, Nitze believed, are you able deter it.
This is, effectively, what Trump and a group of recently sidelined strategists also believe. Throughout his life, Trump has been preoccupied with nukes. In 1984, he claimed that he could single-handedly force Russia to accepted a nuclear truce, telling a reporter:” It would take an hour and a half to learn everything there is to learn about missiles … I believe I know the majority of members of it anyway .” In 1990, he told Playboy:” I’ve always was just thinking about the issue of nuclear war; it’s a very important element in my thought process ,” adding that the assumptions behind the US’s long tradition of non-use were “bullshit”.
But the point about the US’s nuclear hawks- from the Truman era to George HW Bush- was that they did not utilize nuclear weapon. Nitze, for example, repeatedly and courageously tried to engineer strategic agreements to reduce nuclear stockpiles, even while applying military and economic pressure on Russia.
Even the most aggressive hawk understood that they had stewardship of an international system. When that system became “unipolar”, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, their hallucinations of absolute global power slaked the US right’s thirst for nuclear annihilation. Infantry soldiers kicking in the doors of villagers was what absolute power meant; parading ballistic missile was for weaklings.
Now, however, the US is the weakling. Trump’s decision to throw his toys out of the pram with Seoul is a perfect demo of that.
The South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, swept to power in May after millions of protesters forced the impeachment of his rightwing predecessor, Park Geun-hye. He has promised to repeal national security statutes used to repress the left, promoted reconciliation with North Korea, called repeatedly for Seoul to pursue a more independent foreign policy from Washington and opposed- initially, at least- the deployment of US missile defence systems.
If you are going to use North Korea to wage a proxy conflict with China- which former Trump strategist Steve Bannon acknowledged openly- it is best to ensure that your friend in that conflict is led by a hawk. But the US could not. First, because South Korea’s shaky democracy is functioning better than the US’s and allowed the removal of Park for alleged crimes much less serious than actions of which Trump has been accused. Second, because the people of South Korea understand that China is the emergent hegemonic force in the Pacific. The unipolar world is being replaced with a chaotic system in which China and Russia are creating weak local polarities. Running out whose polar attraction will shape your region in the 21 st century is not hard if you live on the Korean peninsula. These global facts are what guide the hands restraining Trump.
Suppose Kim fires a nuclear-armed weapon at Guam or Japan, then the US makes two or three military targets in North Korea with nuclear bombs and sinks Pyongyang’s navy. A short, conventional war follows, destroying Seoul and most of North Korea. A shocked China accepts it has miscalculated poorly and does nothing in response. That is probably the least destructive possible outcome of what would be the first nuclear assault since 1945. But what would it teach Russia and China? Practically, it would teach them that atomic weapon can be used with successful geopolitical outcomes. Morally, it would teach them that nuclear extermination is OK.
In a world where the US’s power is declining, the onus is on everyone- above all, the mature democracies of western Europe– to push for the creation of a multipolar system underpinned by pacts that explicitly de-link trade from geopolitics. The peril facing us is not only the end of the nuclear taboo, it is also that irrational acts by Kim and Trump could destroy any possibility of a multipolar world system emerging via agreement.
Bannon, who was kicked out of the White House by the cabal of ex-generals trying to restrain Trump, labels his opponents” rational accommodationists “. But, faced with the rapid emergence of China into the global power system, accommodation is rational.
Accommodation does not mean you stop criticising other countries’ actions or you stop supporting republic campaigners in countries such as China and North Korea. It does not mean withdrawing conventional forces unilaterally. It means talking.